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Predictions that Florida Governor Charlie Crist's veto of a monstrosity of a teacher effectiveness bill back in April 2010 would cause his state to lose the Race to the Top competition have proven false. Charlie Barone (Democrats for Education Reform), Mike Thomas ( Orlando Sentinel columnist), Clayton Christensen , and others wrote at the time that Crist's veto would cost Florida its Phase Two Race to the Top funding. Nope. Even former Florida governor Jeb Bush and Andy Smarick (a favorite to be next New Jersey education commissioner) intimated that Crist's move was the wrong step and could harm Florida. But, lo and behold, the sky did not fall and Republican Crist is still standing (as an independent running for U.S. Senate). And the feds are cutting a $700 million check to the Sunshine State any day now ( Orlando Sentinel ).

In cycling races such as the Tour de France, riders tragically have lost their lives particularly in mountainous stages in the Alps or Pyrenees. Fortunately, no one was killed in the making of Race to the Top applications. But one state school chief, New Jersey's Brett Schundler, has lost his job as a result of it. Read the Newark Star-Ledger 's story for more: Gov. Chris Christie fired state education commissioner Bret Schundler this morning after Schundler refused to resign in the wake of the controversy over the state's loss of up to $400 million in federal school funding. The state lost a competitive grant contest for education funding by 3 points. While the state lost points across a number of areas for substantive issues, a blunder on one 5-point question has caused an uproar in Trenton. The state lost 4.8 points by seemingly misreading the question, which asked for information from 2008 and 2009 budgets. The state provided information from 2011.

UPDATED 11:28 a.m. CDT The complete list of 10 winning applicants: District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Maryland Massachusetts New York North Carolina Ohio Rhode Island Here is the official U.S. Department of Education press release and the list of Phase Two scores : Phase Two Winners: 1. MA - 471.0 2. NY - 464.8 3. HI - 462.4 4. FL - 452.4 5. RI - 451.2 6. DC - 450.0 7. MD - 450.0 8. GA - 446.4 9. NC - 441.6 10. OH - 440.8 ------------ Finalists: 11. NJ - 437.8 12. AZ - 435.4 13. LA - 434.0 14. SC - 431.0 15. IL - 426.6 16. CA - 423.6 17. CO - 420.2 18. PA - 417.6 19. KY - 412.4 This was an especially competitive round. And, as you can see above, there was NOT a natural cut-off point in the scores between successful applicants and unsuccessful ones. That's got to make the loss sting all the more for states such as New Jersey, Arizona, Louisiana and South Carolina especially. Just three points separate a funded state (Ohio) and a non-funded state (New Jersey)! I am most su...

Dorie Turner of the Associated Press is reporting via Twitter that New York is one of the winners of Race to the Top, Phase Two. If that is the case -- and heavily favored Florida also is shown the money -- then we are likely looking at fewer than 10 winners today. That is, unless states are funded at less than the maximums that they requested. Under such a "spreading the wealth" scenario, then there could be more winners. I'm not going to make predictions -- I think the cut off is likely to be determined by a few points here and there. But I still like the chances of Florida, Illinois, Rhode Island, and South Carolina best.

EPILOGUE (8/24/2010) : Well, my predictions below didn't quite pan out. FL and RI came in strong, but IL and SC flopped (but by mere points , of course). I was almost right that with two large states funded -- Florida and New York -- it would limit the number of winners. But the predicted nine became ten with the surprise inclusion of Hawaii (75 mil) among the winners, along with DC (also only 75 mil). For more on the winners, see here . --- Education Week (and its Politics K-12 blog), the Hechinger Report, the New America Foundation's Ed Money Watch , and the Massachusetts Business Alliance for Education have provided some excellent Race to the Top Phase 2 analysis. Based on Phase 1 scores, reviews of Phase 2 applications, and other considerations, I believe Florida , Illinois , Rhode Island and South Carolina are locks for Phase 2 funding. [ UPDATE (8/4/2010) : One thing that should be concerning to Georgia is an extremely low level of district buy-in ( 14% ) to its app...

Education Week 's Michele McNeil and Alyson Klein at Politics K-12 have the scoop on the Race to the Top, Phase 2 finalists. There are 19 of them: Arizona California Colorado District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Illinois Kentucky Louisiana Maryland Massachusetts New Jersey New York North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina Generally, I think this is about the number of and group of applicants that most expected, including me . The two biggest surprises on the list are Arizona (although it received support from Gates in Phase 2) and Hawaii. There are no shocking omissions from the list, although some felt that the likes of Arkansas, Connecticut, Michigan, Oklahoma and Utah had outside shots at success. Want to read all the finalists' applications to see what's so good about 'em? You can find links to all the applications here . Winners are expected to be named by the U.S. Department of Education in late August or early September.

This policy proposal from Senate Republican Leader Jon Kyl (of Arizona) with a $678 billion price tag -- yes, BILLION -- puts the hullaballo over the $800 million "edujobs" controversy into some perspective. How about we tap into THAT source of revenue by letting the tax cuts expire to save teachers' jobs and leave the currently authorized education reform programs alone? From Huffington Post ("Jon Kyl: Extend Bush Tax Cuts for Wealthy Even If They Add To Deficit"): Top Senate Republican Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) insisted on Sunday that Congress should extend the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans regardless of their impact on the deficit, even as he and other Republicans are blocking unemployment insurance extensions over deficit concerns. White House aides immediately seized on the comments. Press Secretary Robert Gibbs wrote on Twitter, "Kyl says wealthy need big Bush tax cuts while middle class families are on their own to fend for themselves...

Updated 6/22/2010 12:15 p.m. CDT As predicted , 35 states plus DC submitted applications to the U.S. Department of Education today in Phase Two of the Race to the Top competition. Please click on the hyperlink below to view that state's RttT Phase Two application: Alabama [ application ] Arizona [ application ] [ appendices ] Arkansas [ application ] California [ application ] [ appendices ] Colorado [ application ] Connecticut [ application ] [ appendices ] District of Columbia [ application ] [ appendix A ] [ appendices B-F ] Florida [ application ] [ appendices ] Georgia [ application ] [ appendices ] Hawaii [ application ] Illinois [ application ] [ appendix 1 ] [ appendix 2 ] Iowa [ application ] Kentucky [ application ] Louisiana [ application ] Maine [ application ] [ appendices ] Maryland [ application ] Massachusetts [ application ] Michigan [ application ] [ appendices ] Mississippi [ application ] Missouri [ application ] [ appendices ] Montana ...

6/25/2010 UPDATE: Per the Capital Times story this morning about Wisconsin's chances, I stand behind my contention that the state is an unlikely Phase Two winner. As is the case with numerous states that fell in the middle or bottom of the pack in Phase One (WI was 26 out of 41 applicants), I don't believe that Wisconsin passed significant enough reforms since then to improve its competitive chances (as compared to Colorado, Connecticut, New York and Oklahoma, for example). However, state education leaders - including State Superintendent Tony Evers - deserve credit for authoring a much stronger proposal this time and for gaining widespread buy-in for the proposed reforms. Hopefully, many of those ideas can be carried forward regardless of the RTTT outcome. Although this is a joint blog, this post is entirely my own and not Sara's. -- Liam Goldrick Final Race to the Top Phase Two applications are not yet publicly available, so this may be a bit premature. But everyone l...

UPDATED 5/28/2010 The deadline for state applications in Phase Two of the Race to the Top (RttT) competition is next Tuesday, June 1st. Only two states, Delaware and Tennessee , succeeded in winning funding in Phase One. The U.S. Department of Education has estimated that 10-15 states will win funding in Phase Two. With the higher stakes -- more states will be funded this go 'round and this could be the final competition (despite the Obama Administration's request for a third round of RttT funding) -- more skirmishes have broken out, particularly between would-be reformers and teachers' unions. The nastiest of these disputes appears to have been in Minnesota , which apparently scuttled its application as a result. Just check out these quotes: Governor Tim Pawlenty, 2012 Republican presidential aspirant: "Unfortunately, the DFL-controlled Legislature in Minnesota refuses to pass these initiatives because the they are beholden to Education Minnesota, which is the ...

Where do I begin in critiquing such wrong-headed and vitriolic analysis of Florida Governor Charlie Crist's veto of SB 6 , which would have eliminated tenure for teachers and based their evaluations primarily on a single year of student test scores? One cannot accurately and fairly evaluate an individual educator's performance by test scores alone, especially based on a single year's worth of data (as the Florida legislation would have done) and particularly for new teachers . I've said it before and before that -- and I'll undoubtedly say it again. On this specific issue, I'll take the "what they said" approach. Read Claus von Zastrow , Sherman Dorn , David Kirp , and Steve Peha who provide the right amount of counsel and insight. Today's blog post by Rick Hess on value-added methodologies is also worth reading. But, first, I'll say a little more. It appears that a fair number of the forces pushing SB 6 and now bemoaning its veto admi...

The New Teacher Project (TNTP) this week released an excellent analysis of Race to the Top, Phase One state applications, debunking some myths about why some states failed to succeed and offering lessons for states that apply in Phase Two. My only quibble is the absence of any disclosure from TNTP acknowledging that it has a proprietary interest in the outcome of the Race. Specifically, it touts the states of Louisiana and Rhode Island on its "honor roll," but fails to note anywhere in the document that TNTP is written into both state's applications. It has a stake in those states winning in Phase Two. As an employee of an organization (New Teacher Center) written into numerous Race to the Top state applications, I am well aware of and try to constantly attend to the need to separate sound, dispassionate policy analysis from proprietary interests. Personally and professionally, I hope that the state of Rhode Island is funded in round two as well, not only because NTC t...

I'm catching up on education news and blogging after some well-spent time with our family in New York and Vermont last week.... Both successful Phase One Race to the Top (RttT) states -- Delaware and Tennessee -- plan to conduct a statewide teacher working conditions survey. Was this the secret to each state's victory? Well, not exactly, as the states of Colorado, Kentucky, Massachusetts, North Carolina and Ohio also built such a survey into their applications. Of course, each of those states were among the 16 Phase One semifinalists. So, maybe there is something there. Independent of RttT, however, such efforts are in line with President Obama’s recent Blueprint for Reform: The Reauthorization of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act , which would require states and districts to collect and report teacher survey data on available professional support and working conditions in schools biennially. Research has demonstrated a connection between positive teaching and learn...

Today the U.S. Department of Education announced [video] that 16 states have been selected as semifinalists in Phase One of the Race to the Top (RttT) competition. Forty-one states (including DC) applied in Phase One. States selected as semifinalists are: COLORADO DELAWARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA FLORIDA GEORGIA ILLINOIS KENTUCKY LOUISIANA MASSACHUSETTS NEW YORK NORTH CAROLINA OHIO PENNSYLVANIA RHODE ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA TENNESSEE These states will be invited to bring a team to Washington, D.C. this month for formal presentations before RttT reviewers. From those presentations, Phase One finalists will be selected. Non-selected states as well as those that did not apply during Phase One will be eligible to apply for funding in Phase Two, applications due on June 1, 2010. I am somewhat surprised by the inclusion of New York , Pennsylvania and South Carolina , but that surprise is tempered significantly by the fact that 16 states(!) were selected as semifinalists. If there's any sta...

Thomas W. Carroll, the president of the Foundation for Education Reform and Accountability, provides a sound analysis of states' chances of winning Race to the Top funding in phase one. [Hat tip: Alexander Russo ] I would agree that Florida and Louisiana are the likeliest winners in phase one, and would be surprised if Delaware and Tennessee were not, at least, semifinalists. I'm not as keen on Colorado and Michigan , but agree that Georgia is a likely semifinalist as well. Here are some other possible phase one semifinalists from my vantage point: Illinois , Indiana , Kentucky , Massachusetts, North Carolina , Ohio and Rhode Island . Much will depend on how many states make the cut (Rick Hess says 10-15) and where Secretary Duncan draws the cut line. Semifinalists are expected to be announced this coming week, possibly as early as Monday. Teams from those states will be invited to make a formal presentation before a panel of reviewers in Washington, DC sometime in M...

Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley and state school Superintendent Nancy Grasmick can finally agree on one thing: O'Malley's proposal to make the state competitive for Race to the Top round two. Score one for Grasmick? Before Maryland decided not to apply in the first round of the Race to the Top competition -- making it one of only 10 states not to -- O'Malley said that no legislative changes were needed, while Grasmick insisted that they were if Maryland was to submit an application that had a snowball's chance in hell of being successful. It looks like the Governor has come around. The Baltimore Sun reports that the Governor "wants to add a year to the time it takes public school teachers to achieve tenure and to tie their performance evaluations to data on how well their students are doing" and that Grasmick is "very happy." A draft of the governor's Education Reform Act of 2010 shows that it includes: •Lengthening the teacher tenure t...

It's not often I agree with the Wall Street Journal editorial page, but I guess pigs are flying today. The WSJ 's take, in today's editorial (" Race To The Middle? "), on how the Race to the Top selection process should occur is on the mark: To qualify, Mr. Duncan said states had to, among other things, lift caps on charter schools and remove barriers to using student records to identify good teachers and reward them. He's also said that "there will be a lot more losers than winners." That's a good sign, but Mr. Duncan will be tempted to give more states less money in order to minimize political blow back and in the name of getting all states to make at least some, minimal progress. This is the Lake Wobegon school of education reform, where every state is above average.... But Race to the Top shouldn't be about rewarding a state for its grant-writing. It should use federal leverage to help remove barriers that stand in the way of state and l...

Today is the deadline for state applications in the first round of the Race to the Top grant competition. The easy prognostication to make is that the vast majority of the 39 states (and DC) that apply will have their initial applications rejected and all will reapply in round two, due in June. Most will fail then, too. Despite the publicly released application scoring rubric , it is difficult to know exactly how the application scoring will play out, based upon who the reviewers are, whether Gates Foundation consultant funding helped certain states frame more compelling applications, stated or implicit pressures to fund only a certain number of applications (especially in round one), the importance lent to district and union buy-in from an implementation and sustainability perspective, and the strength of big-state applications versus small-state applications. To the latter point, there's ONLY $4 billion to be spread around, and the largest states could suck up as much as $700 mi...